Election Day Open Thread: Your Predictions

So who’s going to win and who’s going to lose in today’s elections? Will Congressman Heath Shuler lose his seat to Republican Jeff Miller? How will the three incumbent members of the NC House — Susan Fisher, Patsy Keever, and Jane Whilden — do against their respective Republican challengers John Carroll, Mark Crawford, and Tim Moffitt? Will RL Clark defeat Martin Nesbitt? Will Chris Dixon defeat Tom Apodaca? And who will be our next Sheriff, District Attorney and Clerk of Court? And what about those judges?

What are your predictions? Let us know what you think!


Thanks for reading through to the end…

We share your inclination to get the whole story. For the past 25 years, Xpress has been committed to in-depth, balanced reporting about the greater Asheville area. We want everyone to have access to our stories. That’s a big part of why we've never charged for the paper or put up a paywall.

We’re pretty sure that you know journalism faces big challenges these days. Advertising no longer pays the whole cost. Media outlets around the country are asking their readers to chip in. Xpress needs help, too. We hope you’ll consider signing up to be a member of Xpress. For as little as $5 a month — the cost of a craft beer or kombucha — you can help keep local journalism strong. It only takes a moment.

Before you comment

The comments section is here to provide a platform for civil dialogue on the issues we face together as a local community. Xpress is committed to offering this platform for all voices, but when the tone of the discussion gets nasty or strays off topic, we believe many people choose not to participate. Xpress editors are determined to moderate comments to ensure a constructive interchange is maintained. All comments judged not to be in keeping with the spirit of civil discourse will be removed and repeat violators will be banned. See here for our terms of service. Thank you for being part of this effort to promote respectful discussion.

27 thoughts on “Election Day Open Thread: Your Predictions

  1. Michael Muller

    What about the local races? Will the mountains of WNC be a buttress against the Republican wave that’s sweeping over the country?

  2. UnaffiliatedVoter

    the bees know…

    PRAY for RL Clark to defeat the bloated Martin Nesbitt! Clean out the House!

  3. dpewen

    Chad Nesbitt convinced me to vote all Dems! I am more interested in prop 19 winning in California.

  4. Dionysis

    The House will turn Repubican, Democrats will lose some seats in the Senate, but retain control. A few governorships will turn Republican. Locally, Heath Shuler will squeak out a narrow victory, Burr will barely win reelection (although that could be a cliff-hanger), Martin Nesbitt will also barely remain in office, and Van Duncan will win by a near landslide over Dickie Green. No opinion on other local races.

    And Chad Nesbitt will continue to embarrass local Republicans.

  5. What about the local races? Will the mountains of WNC be a buttress against the Republican wave that’s sweeping over the country?

    Locally I don’t think we’ll see much change.

  6. Dionysis

    “I want margins, Dionysis. Give me points.”

    I’ll give you speculation on points, having just pulled them out of the air:

    Shuler will win by 10-12% of votes cast

    Burr will win by less than 7% of votes cast

    Nesbitt will win by 12-15% of votes cast

    Van Duncan will garner 82% of votes cast.

    I really don’t have a feel for the margins on the national level, other than I think the Senate will keep a razor-thin Democratic majority, perhaps by 2 (that would include independents who caucus with the Dems.)

  7. Michael Muller

    The reason I asked is that you said Nesbitt will “barely remain in office” — 10-15% spread is a pretty decisive win (and a 10% spread for Shuler is by no means narrow).

    No opinion on Fisher/Carroll, Keever/Crawford or Whilden/Moffitt?

  8. Dionysis

    “The reason I asked is that you said Nesbitt will “barely remain in office” — 10-15% spread is a pretty decisive win (and a 10% spread for Shuler is by no means narrow).”

    That’s true, but after digging into it a little more, my opinion of of Nesbitt’s chances improved a bit. As far as Shuler is concerned, if an incumbent wins by around 10% or so, I would consider that a narrow victory.

    And I will only speculate that Fisher will win.

  9. The Trolls Troll

    Chad Nesbitt and Tim Peck convinced me to vote straight Democratic.

  10. Michael Muller

    Join us on Twitter @mxnews tonight starting at 7pm or on the front page of http://www.mountainx.com for all our election predictions, analysis, results and special guests throughout the evening.

  11. Lamont Cranston

    Democrats will lose the Congress, and barely keep the Senate. Gridlock will rule the day, and the corporations and their monies will continue to flood our airwaves with anti-President Obama and Democratic policy advertisements thanks to the Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court in hopes of defeating him in 2012 which is the real goal in mind.

    This is going to be a very dark ride for many who are already suffering in this country thanks to the corporatist fascists who think that smaller government is better backed by the string pullers who skillfully practice the term that there is a sucker born every minute that is eaten daily on the airwaves by the low information voters who just don’t get it, and will always vote against their own interests.

    Welcome to the new. and improved “Amerika”.

  12. Piffy!

    So will the Republicans save America, now?

    Will they demand Obama bring home the troops from Iraq and Afghanistan?

    Will they demand a return of all bailout money given to banks and the auto industry and the like?

    Will they make sure Guantanamo stays open and torture is still allowed?

    Will they end farm and business subsidies?

    Will they end the unConstitutional military aid to Israel?

    Will the Republicans save us?

  13. “Democrats will lose the Congress, and barely keep the Senate”

    And this is why I don’t usually talk to these people.

    Also, anyone who doesn’t understand what I just said.

  14. Dionysis

    It looks like my projections were pretty close. As Lamont Cranston notes, the gridlock will be incredible. And the unfettered power of corporations will find full expression, with the activist Supreme Court ruling overturning 100 years of case law. Funny how the right, always complaining about the problem of court activism, has been silent in this case.

  15. BigAl

    “Will they end the unConstitutional military aid to Israel?”

    Better to give guns to Israel than bow like a slave to a Saudi King like Barry O.

  16. Barry Summers

    Gosh, who could’ve predicted this? Tea Party favorite Rand Paul now says he’s OK with earmarks. What? You say you thought he was against them when he was running for the Senate? You must have misheard him. This, from the incredibly liberal Wall Street Journal:

    In a bigger shift from his campaign pledge to end earmarks, he tells me that they are a bad “symbol” of easy spending but that he will fight for Kentucky’s share of earmarks and federal pork, as long as it’s doled out transparently at the committee level and not parachuted in in the dead of night. “I will advocate for Kentucky’s interests,” he says.

    So you’re not a crazy libertarian? “Not that crazy,” he cracks.


    Are you crazy enough to stick to the principles that got you elected and therefore jeopardize your re-election?

    “Not that crazy,” he cracks.

    How’s that hopey-changy thing workin’ for ya, Teabaggers?

  17. @Barry

    Finally, something we can agree on!

    Nothing surprising about Rand Paul’s earmarks. His father like earmarks too. They’re both hypocrites.

  18. Barry Summers

    But but but… they told us things would be different? You know, like Paul said on election night:

    “We’re going to take our government back!!”

    Oh, I get it. They’re going to take their government back, and squeeze it for the precious pork juice to go to the ‘right’ people…

  19. Piffy!

    I look forward to Republicans selectively picking and choosing what parts of the Constitution they uphold, and which they choose to actively ignore.

Leave a Reply

To leave a reply you may Login with your Mountain Xpress account, connect socially or enter your name and e-mail. Your e-mail address will not be published. All fields are required.