Twitter coverage: 11th Annual Asheville Metro Economic Outlook

This post provides tweet-by-tweet twitter-based coverage of the 11th Annual Asheville Metro Economic Outlook, which took place Wednesday evening, July 28, 2010. For a PDF of the presentation given by Parsec Financial, click here.

4:31 PM @michaelfmuller: I will be live-tweeting tonight’s Economic Outlook Thingy presented by the Asheville Chamber of Commerce, starting at 5pm.

4:32 PM @michaelfmuller: It takes place at the Diana Wortham Theatre. The public is invited.

4:58 PM @michaelfmuller: So news editor @mvwilliams and I are safely ensconced in the Diana Wortham Theatre, unlike everyone else — who are still waiting outside.

5:01 PM @michaelfmuller: We will be covering the Chamber’s Metro Economy Outlook Presentation, presented by Parsec Financial, with the hashtag #avlecon

5:07 PM @michaelfmuller: The Chamber Players are doing a final run-through of their featured dance number, “Put On A Happy Face”

5:08 PM @michaelfmuller: Running through the sound check. Check Check One Two Check Check.

5:13 PM @michaelfmuller: Just spoke with Tom Tveidt of Syneva Economics, who will present the local perspective of tonight’s presentation.

5:13 PM @michaelfmuller: Tom Tveidt of Syneva Economics:

5:26 PM @michaelfmuller: The Diana Wortham Theatre is filling up rapidly. Good thing we have VIP seating.

5:38 PM @michaelfmuller: 11th Annual Asheville Metro Economic Outlook begins. Roger James of Parsec Financial is speaking

5:40 PM @michaelfmuller: Parsec manages over $957 million dollars

5:41 PM @michaelfmuller: Rick Lutovsky, outgoing Chamber Prez, now speaking and introducing sponsors

5:42 PM @michaelfmuller: Lutovsky just mentioned Mountain Xpress and various other lesser sponsors

5:42 PM @michaelfmuller: Mayor Bellamy, Commissioner K. Ray Bailey & Wanda Greene (County Manager), Rep. Jane Whilden all recognized

5:43 PM @michaelfmuller: Recognizing EDC members and AVL Chamber members

5:44 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. James Smith, Parsec’s Chiedf Economist, now being introduced. Over 35 years of experience, serves on Federal Reserve Board….

5:45 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. James Smith now speaking.

5:46 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. Smith writes a column for Bloomberg and the WSJ

5:47 PM @michaelfmuller: Positive economic growth forecasted for 2010-2012, only 20% chance of continued recession

5:48 PM @michaelfmuller: Unanimous from Fed Chiefs & Board of Guvs: “Do not worry about another recession this year, next year, or the year after.”

5:49 PM @michaelfmuller: Only a few things could derail this and cause another recession: 1) successful terrorist attack in domestic soil…

5:50 PM @michaelfmuller: “When you do not get on and shop, the economy falls to pieces.”

5:51 PM @michaelfmuller: 2) A natural disaster on a large scale, 2) a calamity with Iran that causes oil prices to spike, or 3) action by Congress

5:51 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith says biggest chance of recession rests with Congress.

5:52 PM @michaelfmuller: @Ashevegas: http: // economic forum

5:53 PM @michaelfmuller: If Congress lets tax cuts all revert to tax system of year 2000 at end of year, 60% of taxpayers will be hit, causing recession

5:53 PM @michaelfmuller: Higher taxes will cause recession, says Smith

5:54 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith is making economist jokes. People are laughing

5:55 PM @michaelfmuller: “Shop ‘til you drop until you fall to the floor. Rest a bit and then go shop some more.” -Smith

5:56 PM @michaelfmuller: Income and personal consumption is at record high for March, April and May.

5:57 PM @michaelfmuller: Recession began in December of 2007 and ended in May or June of last year

5:58 PM @michaelfmuller: Asheville is 171st largest metropolitan area in terms of economic contribution

5:59 PM @michaelfmuller: All of us put together in region created over 13 billion in wealth

6:00 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith recommending a book called “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” as the go-to text for understanding economy

6:01 PM @michaelfmuller: Current economy has very little in common with the Great Depression, economy growing for over a year now

6:02 PM @michaelfmuller: Business investments, exports, consumer spending all strong. Things are much better than you read

6:03 PM @michaelfmuller: Lutovsky now introducing Tom Tveidt

6:04 PM @mvwilliams: As smith’s positive pitch ends’ tom tveidt comes in with #s. Avl lost lots of jobs

6:05 PM @michaelfmuller: Cool graph of wiggly lines going up since 2009

6:05 PM @michaelfmuller: Lost between 10-20,000 workers during recession. Tveidt agrees recession has passed, on precipice of adding jobs

6:06 PM @michaelfmuller: Hickory, NC has 15.8% unemployment

6:07 PM @michaelfmuller: Another cool graph showing employment change looking back 1 year ago (to avoid seasonality)

6:07 PM @michaelfmuller: Asheville amongst the lowest unemployment in the state

6:08 PM @michaelfmuller: Demonstrating that the loss of jobs in area has almost stopped. Soon we will be adding jobs

6:09 PM @michaelfmuller: More wiggly lines. Most industries supplying growth are professional business services

6:09 PM @mvwilliams: Avl down 11000 jobs at recessiopn’s worst. Now within 600 of breaking even then adding jobs

6:09 PM @Ashevegas: Tveidt will also say the asheville region will continue to rely on health care and tourism sectors of economy

6:09 PM @michaelfmuller: North Carolina added 30,000 jobs last month

6:10 PM @LocalEdgeRadio: This all sounds like a US Chamber of Commerce infomercial. #avleco

6:11 PM @michaelfmuller: There are 292 metro areas adding jobs since June 2007

6:13 PM @mvwilliams: In 2008, 292 metro areas in u.s. adding jobs

6:13 PM @michaelfmuller: Strike that last bit. The point of this is that the last three years have been crappy

6:14 PM @michaelfmuller: More and more cities are adding jobs — 135 across the US — in the last 6 months

6:14 PM @mvwilliams: In june 2009 just 8 metros adding jobs

6:15 PM @mvwilliams: Correction biggest jobs lost in avl construct, manuf, pro & biz

6:15 PM @michaelfmuller: Heath Services only sector to not lose jobs in AVL metro

6:16 PM @mvwilliams: Growth now in govt, health & leisure&hospitality

6:16 PM @michaelfmuller: Blossom Dearie sings “Put On a Happy Face” http: //

6:17 PM @michaelfmuller: Job losses across all sectors slowing, huge increase in rate of government jobs.

6:18 PM @michaelfmuller: 5 consecutive months of econ growth in hospitatlity and hotels

6:19 PM @michaelfmuller: Significant structural change in terms of people moving here, “Domestic In-Migration”

6:20 PM @michaelfmuller: Existing home sales in AVL metro up last nine months, up 30%, home prices down 7%

6:21 PM @michaelfmuller: Unit sales have turned a corner

6:21 PM @michaelfmuller: Good lord this is exhausting

6:22 PM @michaelfmuller: Strange cartoon of old people on screen

6:22 PM @michaelfmuller: Home appreciation rates continue decline but at slower rate than Charlotte, Wilmington, West Palm Beach

6:42 PM @mvwilliams: Tveidt: job growth but very slow

6:24 PM @michaelfmuller: Finally job growth, but very slow Long way to 2007 employment

6:24 PM @michaelfmuller: Message here is that old people should not get too excited.

6:25 PM @michaelfmuller: AVL metro area had $792 million in exports in 2008, continues to grow despite other numbers

6:25 PM @michaelfmuller: Relying on traditional strengths: healthcare, tourism. manufacturing

6:26 PM @michaelfmuller: Real estate market permanently altered, new demographic

6:27 PM @michaelfmuller: Fewer rich people coming from Florida. Buyers looking for value

6:28 PM @michaelfmuller: New opportrunities: worker afforedability, workforce potential

6:28 PM @michaelfmuller: AVL workforce not typical unemployed, more highly skilled

6:28 PM @mvwilliams: New opportunities, including workforce housing

6:29 PM @michaelfmuller: What effect will run up on national debt have on WNC?

6:29 PM @michaelfmuller: Dr. Smith & Tveidt now taking questions

6:29 PM @michaelfmuller: Applause

6:30 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith: On same track as Greece…default on debt, waiting for Alan Simpson-Erskine Bowles commission to report

6:31 PM @michaelfmuller: “Government spending is unsustainable” —Smith

6:32 PM @michaelfmuller: “Debt went up 1.8 billion a day under Bush, now going up at nearly $5 billion a day under Democrats”  #yikes

6:33 PM @michaelfmuller: Question unclear, woman had high-pitched voice and goofy southern accent

6:34 PM @michaelfmuller: Smith talking about bad decision to let Lehman Brothers go under, cost US economy over 5 Trillion dollars

6:34 PM @DavidForbes: From his statements, Smith seems pretty clearly from the conservative cut taxes/cut spending econ school

6:36 PM @michaelfmuller: Q: Increase in “overhead jobs” — paper pushers, government jobs, but loss of “real jobs” or production jobs

6:36 PM @michaelfmuller: Tveidt disagrees, says manufacturing jobs have increased

6:37 PM @michaelfmuller: America leads the world in productivity in terms of output per worker per year, growing faster than anywhere else in the world

6:37 PM @michaelfmuller: Majority of all people employed have jobs processing information, been that way since Nixon administration

6:38 PM @michaelfmuller: French have better cheese, wine

6:38 PM @michaelfmuller: Americans work longer — 2 months longer per year than workers in France.

6:39 PM @michaelfmuller: Forum over

6:39 PM @michaelfmuller: Positive cash flow… $57 billion in consumer cash , $837 billion pile of business cash

6:41 PM @michaelfmuller: MX news editor @mvwilliams is interviewing people. I will go shmooze

6:52 PM @michaelfmuller: Forgot to mention my standard “How many black people in the crowd” statistic. Only like 3, not including the Mayor.

6:55 PM @michaelfmuller: Lights going out. No one left but me, @Ashevegas, and a few others. Repairing to Pack’s for a frosty beer.

7:25 PM @michaelfmuller: To @jatkin02 Ha! I spoke with Dr. Smith after the forum. He admits to being a low-taxes, less government-is-better kind of guy

7:40 PM @michaelfmuller: Interesting statistic: Fewer people own their homes that any any time since the 4th quarter of 1999

7:42 PM @michaelfmuller: According to Dr. Smith, this is due to the high number of foreclosures caused by the irresponsible mandates imposed by Congress…

7:43 PM @michaelfmuller: …on Fannie & Freddie that required a higher % of home ownership by minorities who could not afford them

7:44 PM @michaelfmuller: All the housing gains of the 1990’s were erased in an instant, according to Smith

Click on the image above to download a PDF of the entire presentation. Courtesy of Parsec Financial


Thanks for reading through to the end…

We share your inclination to get the whole story. For the past 25 years, Xpress has been committed to in-depth, balanced reporting about the greater Asheville area. We want everyone to have access to our stories. That’s a big part of why we've never charged for the paper or put up a paywall.

We’re pretty sure that you know journalism faces big challenges these days. Advertising no longer pays the whole cost. Media outlets around the country are asking their readers to chip in. Xpress needs help, too. We hope you’ll consider signing up to be a member of Xpress. For as little as $5 a month — the cost of a craft beer or kombucha — you can help keep local journalism strong. It only takes a moment.

Before you comment

The comments section is here to provide a platform for civil dialogue on the issues we face together as a local community. Xpress is committed to offering this platform for all voices, but when the tone of the discussion gets nasty or strays off topic, we believe many people choose not to participate. Xpress editors are determined to moderate comments to ensure a constructive interchange is maintained. All comments judged not to be in keeping with the spirit of civil discourse will be removed and repeat violators will be banned. See here for our terms of service. Thank you for being part of this effort to promote respectful discussion.

Leave a Reply

To leave a reply you may Login with your Mountain Xpress account, connect socially or enter your name and e-mail. Your e-mail address will not be published. All fields are required.