Press release from the conservative Civitas Institute:
RALEIGH – Republican Rep. Tim Moffitt leads Democratic challenger Brian Turner by one percentage point in the state House District 116 race, according to a new Flash Poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
In the flash poll, 300 registered voters from the district in Buncombe County were interviewed Oct. 14-15. The survey had a margin of error of plus/minus 5.8 percent.
In the poll, 47 percent said they planned to vote for Moffitt; 46 percent picked Turner; 7 percent were undecided.
When asked if they approved of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 35 percent approved, 59 percent disapproved, and 6 percent were not sure.
Forty-one percent approved of the job Pat McCrory is doing as governor, while 46 percent disapproved and 12 percent were not sure.
Forty-four percent favored Republican Thom Tillis in the U.S. Senate race, 44 percent preferred Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan and 10 percent named Libertarian Sean Haugh, with 2 percent undecided.
House District 116 is rated as an R+5 district on the Civitas Partisan Index, which rates the relative partisan voting habits of legislative districts. For more on the CPI, click here.
Full text of questions*:
In the election for state legislature this fall, will you vote for … the Republican candidate? Or the Democratic candidate?
47% Republican
45% Democratic
8% Undecided
Is your opinion of Tim Moffitt favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Tim Moffitt?
32% Favorable
44% Unfavorable
19% Neutral
6% No Opinion
Is your opinion of Brian Turner favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Brian Turner?
33% Favorable
28% Unfavorable
21% Neutral
19% No Opinion
If the election for State Representative were today, would you vote for … Republican Tim Moffitt? Or Democrat Brian Turner?
47% Tim Moffitt
46% Brian Turner
7% Undecided
In general, is the state of North Carolina headed in the right direction? Or is it off on the wrong track?
33% Right Direction
57% Wrong Track
10% Not Sure
Which one of the following issues is the most important for the state government to address: New Jobs? The economy? Taxes? Government spending? Public education? Health care costs? Government corruption? Illegal immigration? The environment? Or some other issue?
15% New Jobs
11% Economy
6% Taxes
9% Government Spending
29% Public Education
9% Health Care Costs
6% Government Corruption
8% Illegal immigration
2% Environment
4% Other/Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
35% Approve
59% Disapprove
6% Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat McCrory is doing as Governor?
41% Approve
46% Disapprove
12% Not Sure
If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, would you vote for … Republican Thom Tillis? Democrat Kay Hagan? Or Libertarian Sean Haugh?
44% Thom Tillis (R)
44% Kay Hagan (D)
10% Sean Haugh (L)
2% Undecided
On Election Day in November, what would you say would be your primary motive to vote? Will you be more motivated to vote based on … North Carolina specific issues, like state spending, education, and specific state laws and policies? Or national issues like Obamacare, the current administration, and foreign policy?
48% North Carolina Specific Issues
47% National issues
2% Won’t Be Motivated
4% Not Sure
*Because of rounding, totals may not equal 100.
For crosstabs, click here.
About the Poll: This poll of 300 registered was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer Oct. 14-15, 2014. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org
Even if you ignore the fact that they polled *registered* voters and not *likely* voters (which is a HUGE red flag among people who follow polling data) the fact that they only polled 300 people means it’s not even statistically significant. Y’all may as well post the results of an online poll that lets you vote as many times as you want, since the data would be equally reliable (which is to say not reliable at all)
So, Mr. Smith, you’re saying that the internal Democrat poll with unreleased data published in August showing Turner with an 11-point lead was just so much smoke-and-mirrors? Can we get the crosstabs on that?
“Turner leads Moffitt by a 52-41 margin, according to the telephone survey of 400 people conducted July 21-23 by Myers Research.”