In a Civitas Institute “flash” poll of 300 Buncombe County residents Oct. 3-6, Rep. Nathan Ramsey trailed Democratic challenger John Ager by 13 points. Here’s the conservative nonprofit’s press release about the poll:
PRESS RELEASE FROM THE CIVITAS INSTITUTE:
Flash poll snapshot: Ramsey trails Ager
RALEIGH –Republican Rep. Nathan Ramsey trails Democrat challenger John Ager by 13 points in the state House District 115 race, according to a new Flash Poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
In the flash poll, 300 registered voters from the district in Buncombe County were interviewed Oct. 3-6. The survey had a margin of error of plus/minus 5.8 percent.
In the poll, 40 percent said they planned to vote for Ramsey; 53 percent picked Ager. Seven percent were undecided.
When asked if they viewed the candidates favorably or unfavorably, 31 percent said they were neutral about Ramsey or had no opinion. Forty-five percent were neutral or had no opinion of Ager.
Asked if they approved of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 43 percent approved, 49 percent disapproved, and 8 percent were not sure.
Thirty-three percent approved of the job Pat McCrory is doing as governor, while 58 percent disapproved and 9 percent were not sure.
Thirty-six percent favored Republic Thom Tillis in the U.S. Senate race, 51 percent preferred Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, and 7 percent named Libertarian Sean Haugh, with 6 percent undecided.
House District 115 is rated as an R+1 district on the Civitas Partisan Index, which rates the relative partisan voting habits of legislative districts. For more on the CPI, click here.
Full text of questions*:
In the election for state legislature this fall, will you vote for … the Republican candidate? Or the Democratic candidate?
38% Republican
52% Democratic
9% Undecided
Is your opinion of Nathan Ramsey favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Nathan Ramsey?
28% Favorable
41% Unfavorable
21% Neutral
10% No Opinion
Is your opinion of John Ager favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of John Ager?
33% Favorable
22% Unfavorable
23% Neutral
22% No Opinion
If the election for State Representative were today, would you vote for … Republican Nathan Ramsey? Or Democrat John Ager?
40% Nathan Ramsey
53% John Ager
7% Undecided
In general, is the state of North Carolina headed in the right direction? Or is it off on the wrong track?
26% Right Direction
67% Wrong Track
7% Not Sure
Which one of the following issues is the most important for the state government to address: New Jobs? The economy? Taxes? Government spending? Public education? Health care costs? Government corruption? Illegal immigration? The environment? Or some other issue?
7% New Jobs
8% Economy
8% Taxes
8% Government Spending
34% Public Education
6% Health Care Costs
9% Government Corruption
9% Illegal immigration
6% Environment
4% Other/Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
43% Approve
49% Disapprove
8% Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat McCrory is doing as Governor?
33% Approve
58% Disapprove
9% Not Sure
If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, would you vote for … Republican Thom Tillis? Democrat Kay Hagan? Or Libertarian Sean Haugh?
36% Thom Tillis (R)
51% Kay Hagan (D)
7% Sean Haugh (L)
6% Undecided
On Election Day in November, what would you say would be your primary motive to vote? Will you be more motivated to vote based on … North Carolina specific issues, like state spending, education, and specific state laws and policies? Or national issues like Obamacare, the current administration, and foreign policy?
52% North Carolina Specific Issues
45% National issues
2% Won’t Be Motivated
1% Not Sure
*Because of rounding, totals may not equal 100.
For crosstabs, click here.
About the Poll:
This poll of 300 registered was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer Oct. 3-6, 2014. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
About the Civitas Institute
– “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or jim.tynen@nccivitas.org.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
Uh oh.
I got something that looks a lot like this poll last week except it was for the Moffit/Turner race. I got polled for that race even though I don’t live in that district, so I’d take these results with several pounds of salt. I guess Republicans have gertymandered so egregiously that even their buddies at Art Pope’s Civitas can’t even figure out which district people live in.
And THAT point is very very important. If this over selected democrats by picking up city folk or other districts, these poll numbers are suspect. They could also, if trumpeted well, lower turnout by making Ager voters think its all over. In a tight, mid-term style race where turnout is very important….any such factor can make a difference.
The number of people polled (300) seems relatively small to me, so yes, grains or pounds of salt, as with most polls.
I don’t put it past Civitas to put out something they know is inaccurate in order to help vulnerable GOPers. Apparently their rep in the polling community is a technical description, as well as a political description: “Wild Outliers”.
If that’s the case, it still doesn’t bode well for Nathan that someone thinks he’d need some sort of turnout-suppressor to squeak by.
Thanks, Civitas. *ahem*… GET OUT AND VOTE, PEOPLE.
Apparently, neither Nathan or Tim Moffitt have confirmed attendance at Thursday’s YWCA/League of Women Voters forum. Skeered?
Meanwhile, Tim is having a fundraiser with the wildly-popular Governor Pat McCrory on the 16th. You can hang out with them in the “VIP Roundtable” for a mere $500 a head. That’ll go over well with the peeps…