When will we know who won the election in North Carolina?

By Lisa Rab

If you stay up late expecting to hear the results of the presidential race on election night, you might be disappointed. The race is expected to be tight, both in North Carolina and nationally. Some ballots are processed later than others. Close contests can lead to recounts.  

“If it’s two days later, that’s not a sign of negligence, nor is it a sign of somebody doing the wrong thing,” said Chris Cooper, director of the Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University in Cullowhee. It’s possible voters won’t know the entire picture until the state’s 100 local election boards hold their canvass meetings — the official certification of votes — on Nov. 15.

The North Carolina Board of Elections will certify results for state and federal races on Nov. 26. “The smaller the margin [of victory], the longer it’s going to take,” Cooper said.

On election night, you’re more likely to learn the results of statewide races that aren’t close or local elections, which involve fewer votes. Here’s what you need to know about when and how results will be tabulated.

When will absentee ballots be counted?

For absentee ballots cast before Election Day, county election officials will tabulate the results and post them online at 7:30 p.m., or as soon as the polls close. The State Board of Elections estimates this process could take until roughly 9 p.m.

Absentee ballots received on Election Day will be processed later, during the canvassing period.

I voted early. When will my ballot be counted?

In prior presidential elections, state officials could start tabulating the results from early voting during Election Day. Under North Carolina’s Senate Bill 747, which passed last year, early ballots cannot be opened until after the polls close. Corinne Duncan, Buncombe County’s director of election services, estimated this will take an hour to 90 minutes. According to the timeline released by the State Board of Elections, early voting results will be posted online from 8 to 9:30 p.m. on election night.

When will provisional ballots be counted?

County election officials are required to report the number of provisional ballots cast by two days after the election, but it will take longer for them to determine if each voter was eligible, and if their vote should count. They have until Nov. 15 to complete that process.

What about members of the military and others living overseas?

Citizens and service members living overseas must email or mail their ballots by Election Day. But in North Carolina, those mailed ballots don’t have to be received until Nov. 14. This receipt deadline varies by state, which could complicate the presidential election results if the margins are close.

Will Hurricane Helene’s destruction cause delays in counting votes in Western North Carolina?

So far, election officials and poll workers in the hardest hit counties aren’t expecting delays in the tabulation of votes. Even in downtown Marshall, which experienced massive flooding during Helene, Madison County officials are using temporary cell phones to continue their work. Elections director Jacob Ray isn’t worried about technological delays or legal challenges. “I don’t anticipate any, but you never know what might happen statewide,” he said.

Although FEMA employees in Rutherford County have been threatened with violence, elections director Dawn Lovelace said she had not experienced any threats or intimidation. However, she added, “I’m kind of leery about what’s going to happen on Election Day.”

How will I know my vote counted?

If you voted early or by mail, use the “Voter Search” tool on the state Board of Elections website. If you vote on Election Day, you can check the same site, but it might take a few weeks for the information to be updated.

Why did it seem like lines were longer than usual at my polling place?

This year, every voter in the state is required to show some kind of photo ID. Cooper said this can lengthen the voting process.

How could legal action complicate the process?

Voter eligibility: The Republican National Committee and the North Carolina GOP have filed a lawsuit, now in federal court, alleging that 225,000 people should not have been registered to vote because they used an outdated form that didn’t require their driver’s license or the last four digits of their Social Security numbers. Democrats have argued there’s no evidence these people were not eligible to vote, or that they have, in fact, voted. Their eligibility could be confirmed when they show photo identification at the polls.

The GOP requested the voters in question be removed from the rolls or required to cast provisional ballots. That has not happened, as the case remains unresolved.

Bob Orr, a retired N.C. Supreme Court justice who co-chairs the N.C. Network for Fair, Safe, and Secure Elections, said GOP attorneys might argue the final vote tally in either the presidential race or a statewide race is wrong because some percentage of these voters should not have been allowed to vote.

Close races: In North Carolina, candidates can request a recount in any statewide contest where the final vote tally is within 10,000 votes or half a percentage point. In local elections, a candidate can request a recount if the difference between the vote totals is 1 percent of the number of votes cast or less.

The recount rules are the same for state and local races. The first recount is done by machine. If the votes are still close, the candidate can request a hand recount in a sample of precincts. In that case, a bipartisan team of four people recounts each ballot by hand.

Recounts can take a long time. In 2020, when Cheri Beasley requested a recount in the race for Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, all 100 boards of elections first conducted a machine recount, and then, at Beasley’s request, 3% of precincts in each county recounted the ballots by hand. When the vote totals didn’t change in her favor, Beasley conceded the race to Paul Newby in mid-December 2020. If she had gained enough votes during the partial hand recount, the state could have ordered a full recount by hand.

If a candidate contests a statewide election — for offices such as attorney general or schools superintendent — the General Assembly can decide the winner (The Assembly explained the process here). Since Republicans hold a supermajority in the legislature, “there’s some consternation among Democrats” about them picking a winner, said Orr, a former Republican who is now registered as an unaffiliated voter.

In close statewide races, Cooper says he can imagine other lawsuits being filed over the counting of provisional ballots, or someone claiming there were voting irregularities due to Hurricane Helene. Like the local officials, though, he said he is not anticipating many problems due to the storm. “The county boards of election have done a remarkable job adjusting,” he said.

What’s the election night timeline?

Here’s what the State Board of Elections expects on election night:

7:30 p.m.: Polls close.

7:30 p.m.~9 p.m.: Absentee-by-mail votes are reported.

8 p.m.~9:30 p.m.: Early voting results are reported.

8:30 p.m.~midnight: Precinct results are reported.

After election night: Military and overseas absentee ballots that are received by the return deadline, as well as provisional votes, will be added to the results.

Lisa Rab, whose work has appeared in The Washington Post Magazine and Politico Magazine, lives in Western N.C. You can find more of her work at lisarab.substack.com.

This story was produced by the WNC Election Hub, a project of the NC Local News Workshop, in partnership with The Assembly and funded with generous support from the Knight Election Integrity initiative.