Civitas Poll: Ramsey slightly ahead of Wilson in Buncombe Statehouse race

Here’s the press release from the conservative Civitas Institute. Republican Nathan Ramsey has a slight lead over Democrat Susan Wilson in the Statehouse race for District 115, which covers much of eastern and northern Buncombe County, including Black Mountain and Weaverville, according to Civitas’ new poll.

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC House District 115 in Buncombe County. Republican Nathan Ramsey, a former county commissioner, faces attorney Susan Wilson, the Democratic candidate.

The survey of 350 registered voters with a margin of error of 5.3 percent was taken August 18 and 19. It showed Ramsey with a 6 percentage point lead over Wilson, 49 percent to 43 percent. Democrats are supporting Wilson 75 percent to 22 percent; Ramsey leads among Republican voters 93 percent to 2 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up one-fourth of voters in this district, are breaking to Ramsey by a 12-point margin, with 49 percent backing him, compared to 37 percent for Wilson.

At the top of the ballot, Democrats hold leads among Dist. 115 voters. In the presidential race, in the district Mitt Romney is trailing President Obama, 42 percent to 50 percent. Romney is capturing 87 percent of the Republicans and 43 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 15 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of Buncombe County voters breaking 81 percent for President Obama.

Though Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, in the Civitas Flash Poll of Dist. 115 he trails Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, 41 percent to 45 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 9 percent. In the poll, McCrory’s numbers track very closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 87 percent for McCrory and 15 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for the former Charlotte mayor. Among independents, McCrory leads Dalton 40 to 32 percent

By a clear margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Fifty-five percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 41 percent opposed the requirement.

Nearly two-thirds of the voters in District 115 think the state is on the wrong track, with 62 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, compared to 25 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy was split, with 23 percent saying things will get worse and the identical percentage saying things will get better, while 47 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, indicating that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

Information on future polls will be available at Civitas Poll Lunches on Thursday, Aug. 30 and in September.


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